{"id":2626,"date":"2013-06-04T13:27:16","date_gmt":"2013-06-04T13:28:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/?p=2626"},"modified":"2017-11-14T21:28:38","modified_gmt":"2017-11-14T19:28:38","slug":"trapped-in-the-cul-de-sac-of-no-good-choices-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/trapped-in-the-cul-de-sac-of-no-good-choices-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Trapped in the cul de sac of no good choices"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"Unlike the past when the United States faced potentially existential dangers, from the Revolution to the Civil War, Great Depression, World War II and the Cold War, since the attacks on New York City\u2019s Twin Towers on September 11th<\/sup>, too many of today\u2019s crises and challenges have no obvious solutions let alone good ones.\u00a0 The United States seems caught in a no-man\u2019s land of danger that eludes choices that can affect positive outcomes.<\/p>\n

Syria is one of many examples.\u00a0 As this column asked, suppose in human terms, supporting the horrible regime of Bashar Assad would claim the fewest number of lives.\u00a0 Are a hundred or two hundred thousand lives worth the empowerment of Iran, Hezbollah and Iraq?\u00a0 And if they were, would domestic American politics tolerate that choice?\u00a0 The answer is no. And should the opposition win, the odds are high for a Sunni-Alawite pogrom followed by a Sunni-Sunni civil war.<\/p>\n

In Iran, the simple answer to the nuclear standoff is for direct negotiations with Tehran.\u00a0 The Obama administration will recall that its first attempt at a rapprochement was rejected.\u00a0 And there are few guarantees that if the White House sought an Iranian interlocutor, Tehran would not leak that story to embarrass the president.<\/p>\n

Iraq is in chaos.\u00a0 Over a thousand Iraqis were killed last month in internecine war.\u00a0 That killing is only likely to worsen.\u00a0 What is the answer?\u00a0 There is none.<\/p>\n

The \u201cother\u201d war in Afghanistan is not going any better either.\u00a0 Former Commander of the International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF), Marine General John Allen has written a paper that declares the war still \u201cwinnable\u201d if.\u00a0 And that is a big \u201cif\u201d as a dozen years of engagement and nation building, uneven at best and failed at worst, demonstrate.<\/p>\n

Pakistan has witnessed for the first time a democratic transfer of power.\u00a0 Many in the Obama administration are delighted with the prospect of ABZ—anyone but Zardari, Pakistan\u2019s president who has already declared that he will not stand for another term given his party\u2019s electoral pounding.\u00a0 Nawaz Sharif, Prime Minister for the third time, is perceived in Washington as a possible white knight despite his strong opposition to drone attacks.<\/p>\n

That optimism is both suspect and highly na\u00efve.\u00a0 Nawaz is no friend of America.\u00a0 And he has NO solutions to the profound problems plaguing Pakistan from desperate electrical power shortages to a worsening insurgency at a time of looming economic depression.\u00a0 With 70 or 80 million Pakistani youth moving to cities with little chance of employment and subject to increasing Islamic radicalization, this time bomb could easily explode sooner than later.\u00a0 Hence, who can help?\u00a0 Not America.<\/p>\n

President Obama will meet with China\u2019s president Xi Jinping this week. Xi will want to understand the pivot to Asia and what that means for U.S.-China relations. Obama will provide substantial evidence of a huge Chinese cyber theft effort to steal vast amounts of intellectual property.\u00a0 Xi will deny these allegations.\u00a0 So, between explaining the pivot and protesting the theft of intellectual property, in these circumstances, what choices does the American side have especially when China owns two trillion dollars of U.S. debt?\u00a0 The answer is not much.<\/p>\n

In Europe the picture is not much rosier. NATO is in disarray. The defense budgets of most member states are being slashed below the bone.\u00a0 Germany and France are competing as the leading power in Europe.\u00a0 And the twin problems of terrorism and immigration exacerbate the failure to govern.\u00a0 Even the UK, America\u2019s steadfast ally, is in political trouble, as the Cameron government stumbles over these same issues.\u00a0 Hence, what are America\u2019s choices?<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the White House understands that further \u201cresets\u201d of relations with Moscow are essential if progress is to be made in Syria and Iran.\u00a0 Russian cooperation is essential. Yet, transfers of Russian military aid including surface to air and surface to surface missiles to Damascus that are shifting the war to Assad\u2019s favor are not helpful to supporting Obama\u2019s calls for a political solution.<\/p>\n

And, at home, while there are signs of economic life, the recovery remains fragile.\u00a0 The differences between the affluent and the rest of American society continue to grow.\u00a0 Unemployment remains high.\u00a0 If the Federal Reserve slows or ends its policy of \u201cquantitative easing\u201d (buying back debt), interest rates are certain to rise with very negative consequences for the economy given the $17 trillion Federal debt.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, unlike World War II or the Cold War, no obvious unifying strategy currently exists.\u00a0 With the declaratory end of the \u201cwar on terror,\u201d long overdue, a replacement framework is essential.\u00a0 To exit this cul de sac of no good choices, finding this new framework must be job one.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Unlike the past when the United States faced potentially existential dangers, from the Revolution to the Civil War, Great Depression, World War II and the Cold War, since the attacks on New York City\u2019s Twin Towers on September 11th, too many of today\u2019s crises and challenges have no obvious solutions let alone good ones.\u00a0 The United States seems caught in a no-man\u2019s land of danger that eludes choices that can affect positive outcomes. Syria is one of many examples.\u00a0 As this column asked, suppose in human terms, supporting the horrible regime of Bashar Assad would claim the fewest number of lives.\u00a0 Are a hundred or two hundred thousand lives worth […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":2629,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65,76,66],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2626","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog-en","category-harlan-ullman-en","category-studies-and-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2626"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2626"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2626\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4517,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2626\/revisions\/4517"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2629"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2626"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2626"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2626"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}