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A specter is haunting the United States. That specter is one of American decline.\u00a0 But this specter is not merely exaggerated.\u00a0 It is poppycock.\u00a0 Those who see in America the conditions that led to the fall of the Roman Empire or the catastrophic Grecian wars between Athens (read America) and Sparta (read China) are simply wrong.<\/p>\n
The United States or any other state could never remain the world\u2019s colossus and singular dominant power forever.\u00a0 The end of World War II with the destruction of Europe and Asia granted the United States a unique moment in history.\u00a0 However, an ascending Soviet Union ultimately checked the unilateral authority and influence of the United States.\u00a0 And the inevitable diffusion of all forms of global power, along with the rebuilding of Europe and Asia, made it impossible for any state to exist as the world\u2019s sole superpower.<\/p>\n
Unfortunately, too many who long for the days when America seemed dominant refuse to understand that the current realities in which all forms of power are diffusing create new opportunities, opportunities that the United States could readily exploit provided it is prepared to shed rigid beliefs about the past and the virtues of unilateralism for a new and more relevant mindset.<\/p>\n
In absolute terms, the totality of American power is unchanged.\u00a0 In relative terms, American power of course has been diluted.\u00a0 Comparative advantage and the growth of other economies have enhanced global competition.\u00a0 And burgeoning economies have magnified the need for energy, enriching oil and gas producers whose treasure chests in turn created huge financial leverage and investment power.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, America\u2019s unchallenged military power has proven largely ineffective in waging war against adversary\u2019s who lacked armies, navies and air forces and in Iraq and Afghanistan where nation building and economic development required other tools and cyber dangers transcend any fixed boundaries once ascribed only to departments and ministries of defense.\u00a0 The obvious consequence is a relative dilution of American influence and authority.\u00a0 And there is another wrinkle.<\/p>\n
Metrics for defining measures of power and influence are still in adolescence.\u00a0 Harvard\u2019s Joseph Nye has been credited for creating the concept of \u201chard\u201d and \u201csoft\u201d power. \u00a0Yet, both terms are qualitative and not quantitative hence susceptible to psychological or political interpretation.\u00a0 Further, distinctions between hard and soft do not offer solutions or policy prescriptions other than descriptions that may or may not be relevant.<\/p>\n
In business, when conditions change, to succeed, organizations respond.\u00a0 That IBM no longer builds computers and Xerox no longer is famous for copying machines are salutary examples of change.\u00a0 So too, American policy must recognize that the emergence of new power centers creates opportunities as well as challenges.<\/p>\n
How then should the United States respond?\u00a0 First, establishing new metrics for measuring and understanding power is a good first step.\u00a0 Those who see China eclipsing the United States use as a simplistic measure GDP.\u00a0 At some future date, China with a population four times greater than America\u2019s may achieve a larger GDP.\u00a0 But what does that signify?\u00a0 And using GDP alone as a measure of power is akin to basing an individual\u2019s health solely on height or some single index.<\/p>\n
The total assets of the United States less its natural resources are estimated at around $100 trillion.\u00a0 Deduct public and private debt of about $30 trillion leaves net assets at the $70 trillion level.\u00a0 With an annual GDP currently about $17 trillion, the aggregate wealth of the US is between $80-90 trillion.<\/p>\n
What is China\u2019s net worth?\u00a0 Even given an equivalent GDP and China\u2019s is about half of America\u2019s today, China is light years away from overtaking the United States in net assets.\u00a0 The point is not whether this metric is the better.\u00a0 Instead, we need new means to evaluate relative and absolute power.<\/p>\n
Second, economics now trump military power in expanding not only influence but in achieving foreign policy objectives.\u00a0 Economic disparity, disadvantage and dislocation are central drivers of instability in much of the world.\u00a0 Egypt is Exhibit A.\u00a0 Hence, moving forward on the Atlantic and Pacific trade and investment treaties is crucial.<\/p>\n
Third, partnerships are vital beyond trade and investment.\u00a0 In security terms, expanding the reach of NATO to match up with the Shanghai Cooperative Organization is a good example.\u00a0 Despite the intense reverberations of Edward Snowden\u2019s revelations about American surveillance and spying, new efforts for cooperation in cyber and counter-terror must be undertaken.<\/p>\n
Fourth and most important, creating a new and optimistic mindset about confronting and coopting the realties in which relative levels of unmatched U.S. power no longer offer the same advantages of the past is essential.\u00a0 This requires the magic ingredient of leadership begetting followership.<\/p>\n
The challenge in this new age remains: who shall lead? And will anyone listen?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A specter is haunting the United States. That specter is one of American decline.\u00a0 But this specter is not merely exaggerated.\u00a0 It is poppycock.\u00a0 Those who see in America the conditions that led to the fall of the Roman Empire or the catastrophic Grecian wars between Athens (read America) and Sparta (read China) are simply wrong. The United States or any other state could never remain the world\u2019s colossus and singular dominant power forever.\u00a0 The end of World War II with the destruction of Europe and Asia granted the United States a unique moment in history.\u00a0 However, an ascending Soviet Union ultimately checked the unilateral authority and influence of the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":2780,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[69,65,76,62],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2782","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-blog-en","category-harlan-ullman-en","category-regions"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2782"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2782"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2782\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2850,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2782\/revisions\/2850"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2780"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2782"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2782"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2782"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}