{"id":3524,"date":"2014-10-12T20:28:57","date_gmt":"2014-10-12T17:28:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/?p=3524"},"modified":"2014-10-12T20:51:51","modified_gmt":"2014-10-12T17:51:51","slug":"a-defining-moment-in-history-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/a-defining-moment-in-history-2\/","title":{"rendered":"A defining moment in history"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"Make no mistake: in taking the fight to the Islamic State (IS or aka the Enemies of Islam), President Barack Obama is at a defining moment for his presidency and probably the future.\u00a0 Perhaps less spectacular than the fall of the Berlin Wall and the implosion of the Soviet Union a quarter of a century ago or September 11th, the decision to catalyze a global fight against Islamic extremism and terrorism could be as far reaching in consequence.\u00a0 Consider the grounds for this conclusion.<\/p>\n

The accumulating grievances dating back to well before the Sykes-Picot secret treaty of 1916 sliced Mesopotamia into indigestible parts have become irreversible thus forcing religious, ethnic, regional, political and ideological schisms to the breaking point. This breaking point has been exacerbated by centuries old Arab and Muslim animosity over Western imperialism and dominance.\u00a0 Turkey and Egypt of course are part of this imbroglio. And the long-standing Arab-Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a ticking time bomb.<\/p>\n

As a result, at least four consequences have arisen.\u00a0 First, IS has become the Frankensteinian child of Four New Horsemen of the Apocalypse that threaten mankind.\u00a0 The first rider is failed or failing government.\u00a0 The second is economic despair, disparity and dislocation.\u00a0 Third is radical ideology in this case predominantly religious fanaticism.\u00a0 And fourth is environmental calamity.<\/p>\n

IS is the product of the first three.\u00a0 Hence, it is a symptom.\u00a0 For President Obama and the coalition of the willing and the frightened to succeed, action to redress the causes is the only long-term solution.\u00a0 Yet addressing the causes will take decades.<\/p>\n

The metaphor is someone whose doctor has informed them of a life-threatening disease and offered two options.\u00a0 The patient can deal with the symptoms to reduce, pain, fever and other conditions hoping for a self-cure that is unlikely to arise. Or, the patient can undergo more radical and difficult treatment.\u00a0 Regarding IS, this is very much where we stand.<\/p>\n

Next, fundamental flaws and contradictions that have shaped policy in the U.S., West and Arab Muslim states no longer can be papered over, ignored and hidden away in dark corners.\u00a0 The U.S. must decide how serious a threat IS really is because IS can never be defeated by outside forces alone.\u00a0 And within the region, the U.S. cannot simultaneously defeat Bashar al Assad, IS and restrain Iran\u2019s intentions.\u00a0 If IS is to be vanquished, then tacit or de facto alliance with Assad, however unsavory, and the ayatollahs in Tehran must be a concession.\u00a0 To some degree, elegantly discrete diplomacy can mitigate the political risks of Washington being seen even shifting a millimeter towards either Damascus or Tehran.<\/p>\n

The Arab and Islamic worlds—the latter which has never undergone a reformation—must decide between modernism and medievalism.\u00a0 For Sunni Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, the threat of IS to every regime means that the double game of supporting both the west and Salafist and Wahabi radicalism is over.\u00a0 Which is it to be\u2014survival of the regime and reforms to that end or potential imposition of the most perverse and radical forms of Sharia law along with the demise of the current elite?<\/p>\n

Iran and Saudi Arabia must decide whether their mutual antagonisms outweigh the threat of IS. Iraq must decide whether exclusion of the Sunni minority is more important than saving the country.\u00a0 And the Arab and Muslim states must decide that all are more or less united in opposing IS as the greater threat.<\/p>\n

Fourth, other states, however distant, are involved and affected.\u00a0 Russia and China have huge internal problems with Islamic fundamentalism and radicalism and Moscow supports Syria.\u00a0 Afghanistan, Pakistan and India are linked to these issues.\u00a0 And Europe with its large Muslim populations is literally a passport away from obscene acts of terror.<\/p>\n

Failing to resolve these policy choices and contradictions will mean that containing IS, let alone destroying it, will be a bridge too far.\u00a0 And the new Four Horsemen will be allowed to ride amuck and unhindered. That alone must mark a defining point in history.<\/p>\n

Of course, IS could implode.\u00a0 This is a strategy to pursue no matter what.\u00a0 Through disinformation, counter-narratives, targeted assassinations and ploys to turn one faction against another, perhaps the disease will cure itself.\u00a0 But do not bet on it.<\/p>\n

Regardless of what specific strategies and tactics are followed, one over arching understanding is crucial to success. Unless we appreciate that this is a defining moment possibly in memory, what steps are taken will be insufficient unless we are very lucky.\u00a0 And while it is sometimes better to be lucky than good, this is not one of them.\u00a0 We need to be both lucky and good.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Make no mistake: in taking the fight to the Islamic State (IS or aka the Enemies of Islam), President Barack Obama is at a defining moment for his presidency and probably the future.\u00a0 Perhaps less spectacular than the fall of the Berlin Wall and the implosion of the Soviet Union a quarter of a century ago or September 11th, the decision to catalyze a global fight against Islamic extremism and terrorism could be as far reaching in consequence.\u00a0 Consider the grounds for this conclusion. The accumulating grievances dating back to well before the Sykes-Picot secret treaty of 1916 sliced Mesopotamia into indigestible parts have become irreversible thus forcing religious, ethnic, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":3522,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65,76,102,72,62,88],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog-en","category-harlan-ullman-en","category-issues","category-middle-east","category-regions","category-terrorism"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3524"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3524"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3524\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3525,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3524\/revisions\/3525"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3522"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3524"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3524"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3524"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}