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Next Tuesday, America goes to the polls to elect all manner of officials from city counsel person and sheriff to members of Congress.\u00a0 Congressional and gubernatorial races have of course attracted national attention.\u00a0 While the House of Representatives will remain firmly in Republican hands, the future control of the Senate is uncertain.<\/p>\n
Both parties predict that should they lose or win the Senate, the future of the nation is at stake.\u00a0 Unfortunately, whether Republicans win or Democrats maintain Senatorial control, it will make little difference.\u00a0 The political system is badly broken and all the king\u2019s horses and all the king\u2019s men cannot repair it.<\/p>\n
Interestingly, control of the Senate races could be delayed depending on the returns in North Carolina and Georgia.\u00a0 If no candidate wins 50% of the vote, there will be run-offs in December and January respectively.\u00a0 Hence, as the 2000 presidential race was not decided until the Supreme Court acted weeks after the election, control of the Senate may not be clear on November 5th.<\/p>\n
One reason why control of the Senate is less significant is because the president has the power of the veto.\u00a0 Overriding a presidential veto requires a 2\/3 majority in both Houses of Congress.\u00a0 Barring the most extraordinary circumstances, that will not happen.<\/p>\n
Cynically, Democrats and President Barack Obama may be silently hoping for a Republican victory.\u00a0 Then the president can lay the blame at a Republican Congress for failing to do the nation\u2019s business.\u00a0 Whether that helps or not in 2016, the Bully Pulpit gives Mr. Obama a decisive advantage.<\/p>\n
While the president is polling at 40% approval or less, Republicans and Congress are in single digits of popularity.\u00a0 Even with a curtailed Tea Party in residence on Capitol Hill, no doubt some of the legislation passed by a Republican Congress will be easy pickings for a veto.\u00a0 And the president can rely on executive action to substitute for legislation.\u00a0 That of course will provoke a massive reaction by Republicans.\u00a0 But impeachment requires a 2\/3 majority in the Senate and Democrats cannot lose that many seats.<\/p>\n
Where does this leave the nation?\u00a0 In many ways, the gallows humor in Europe a century ago before World War I started is relevant.\u00a0 As the crises in Europe grew stronger, at the Qui D\u2019orsay in Paris, the reasoned view was that the situation was serious but not yet desperate.\u00a0 In Berlin, the view was jaundiced.\u00a0 Conditions were desperate but not fully serious.<\/p>\n
Today, the world seems quite a mess.\u00a0 At home, the economy has not fully recovered and gives signs of stumbling.\u00a0 Unemployment, including those with part time jobs and those who have fallen off the lists of the jobless, is several percentage points higher than advertised.\u00a0 The income gaps between rich and poor are growing.\u00a0 Wages have stagnated.\u00a0 And for those who follow the stock market and have savings invested in 401K and other plans, the volatility is worrying.\u00a0 In the space of 30 days, the Dow lost nearly 1000 points in October.\u00a0 At this stage, it has mostly recovered, at least for the time being.<\/p>\n
Abroad, there are few bright spots.\u00a0 From the Maghreb to the Bay of Bengal, crises abound.\u00a0 Tunisia may be holding democratic elections.\u00a0 But huge numbers of Tunisians are flocking to Iraq and Syria to fight under the Islamic State\u2019s black flag.\u00a0 Egypt is beset by insurgencies in the Sinai and a flagging economy.\u00a0 Libya, Syria and Iraq are in chaos.<\/p>\n
Nuclear negotiations with Iran are reaching a November deadline.\u00a0 The Islamic State (IS) continues to strengthen its grip on huge swaths of Syria and Iraq, much uninhabited but also containing Iraq\u2019s second largest city, Mosul.\u00a0 The strategy to degrade and destroy IS is still in its formative stages and recruiting and training Arab and Muslim boots on the ground is heavy going.<\/p>\n
If these crises were not enough, Ebola has become the latest threat.\u00a0 Containing the disease to West Africa is the most sensible strategy.\u00a0 However, when a state as advanced as America runs into difficulty managing a handful of cases so far, the public has a right to express concern.\u00a0 While science suggests this disease is controllable, the bubonic plagues of centuries ago that wiped out half the population of Europe and the Spanish Flu of ninety five years ago that killed upwards of 50 million are not only historical facts.\u00a0 They are causes for worry.<\/p>\n
Against this background, it will be an adventure to see how the first session of the 114th Congress that takes office in January 2015 will deal with these issues.\u00a0 And the results are not likely to be pleasant.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Next Tuesday, America goes to the polls to elect all manner of officials from city counsel person and sheriff to members of Congress.\u00a0 Congressional and gubernatorial races have of course attracted national attention.\u00a0 While the House of Representatives will remain firmly in Republican hands, the future control of the Senate is uncertain. Both parties predict that should they lose or win the Senate, the future of the nation is at stake.\u00a0 Unfortunately, whether Republicans win or Democrats maintain Senatorial control, it will make little difference.\u00a0 The political system is badly broken and all the king\u2019s horses and all the king\u2019s men cannot repair it. Interestingly, control of the Senate races […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":3546,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[69,65,76,62],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-blog-en","category-harlan-ullman-en","category-regions"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3548"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3548"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3548\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3549,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3548\/revisions\/3549"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3546"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3548"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3548"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3548"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}