{"id":3970,"date":"2015-10-25T10:50:52","date_gmt":"2015-10-25T08:50:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/?p=3970"},"modified":"2017-11-14T21:27:42","modified_gmt":"2017-11-14T19:27:42","slug":"jocurile-de-putere-in-orientul-mijlociu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/jocurile-de-putere-in-orientul-mijlociu\/","title":{"rendered":"Jocurile de putere \u00een Orientul Mijlociu"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"jocuri-orient\"<\/a>Turcia<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u021aara care are prezen\u021ba cea mai important\u0103 pe scena Orientului Mijlociu este Turcia. Ankara dore\u0219te s\u0103-\u0219i impun\u0103 punctul de vedere \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te viitorul Siriei. Constituirea Zonei libere de ocupa\u021bia Statului Islamic este obiectivul num\u0103rul unu al politici externe turce la grani\u021ba cu Siria. F\u00e2\u0219ia de teritoriul situat\u0103 de-a lungul grani\u021bei \u00een lungime de 100 de km \u0219i ad\u00e2nc\u0103 de 64 de km se \u00eentinde de la ora\u0219ul Azaz al ora\u0219ul Jarabulus pe r\u00e2ul Eufrat este destinat\u0103 s\u0103 taie leg\u0103turile Satului Islamic cu exteriorul, s\u0103 \u00eempart\u0103 teritoriul kurd din nordul Siriei \u00een dou\u0103 zone \u00eempiedic\u00e2nd consolidarea proviciei Rojava. Rojava sau Kurdistanul de Vest<\/strong> este o regiune autonom\u0103 de facto \u00een nordul \u0219i nord-estul Siriei, care \u0219i-a c\u00e2\u0219tigat autonomia \u00een noiembrie 2013 ca parte a Campaniei Rojava, c\u00e2nd s-au pus bazele unei societ\u0103\u021bi bazate pe principiile democra\u021biei directe, egalit\u0103\u021bii de \u0219anse \u00eentre b\u0103rba\u021bi \u0219i femei \u0219i sustenabilit\u0103\u021bii. Rojava este alc\u0103tuit\u0103 din trei cantoane de la est la vest: Jazira, Koban\u00ee \u0219i Afrin. Autonomia Rojavei nu este recunoscut\u0103 oficial de guvernul sirian, iar regiunea se afl\u0103 \u00een r\u0103zboi cu Statul Islamic. De men\u021bionat c\u0103 Teheranul dore\u0219te \u0219i negocieaz\u0103 cu Damascul a astfel de zon\u0103 care ar duce la o obstruc\u021bie mai mic\u0103 a kurzilor fa\u021b\u0103 de Assad. Zona va fi securizat\u0103 de insurgen\u021bii sirieni cu ajutorul artileriei turce \u0219i a avia\u021biei americane. Acordul dintre Ankara \u0219i Washington a venit dup\u0103 ani de negocieri prin care Turcia dorea instalarea unei no-fly zone \u00een nordul Siriei, o zon\u0103 cu popula\u021bie etnic turkmen\u0103 pe care autorit\u0103\u021bile de la Ankara vor s\u0103 se sprijine.<\/p>\n

Comunitatea kurd\u0103<\/strong><\/p>\n

De asemenea la grani\u021ba de nord a Siriei comunitatea kurd\u0103 \u00een special organiza\u021bia PKK are o important\u0103 influen\u021b\u0103. Acum doi ani Partidul Uniunii Democratice din Siria (reprezentantul legal al PKK \u00een spectrul politic sirian) \u0219i Consiliul Na\u021bional al Kurzilor au constituit Comitetul Suprem Kurd cel care de facto a declarat autonomia regiunii Rojava. Comitetul Suprem Kurd \u0219i aripa sa \u00eenarmat\u0103 Unit\u0103\u021bile de Protec\u021bie a Popula\u021biei (YPG) declar\u0103 sus \u0219i tare c\u0103 ei nu reprezint\u0103 PKK \u0219i cu toate acestea Turcia a \u00eenchis grani\u021ba cu provincia Rojava consider\u00e2n YPG ca o arip\u0103 a PKK. YPG prime\u0219te ajutora iranian \u0219i este tolerant\u0103 cu regimul Assad. Loviturile aeriene americane au sprijinit YPG \u00een lupta \u00eempotriva ISIS ace\u0219tia ob\u021bin\u00e2nd o victorie important\u0103 \u00een regiunea Tal Abyad unind astfel cantoanele Kobani \u0219i Hassakah \u0219i realiz\u00e2nd cel mai mare teritoriu kurd autonom \u00een Siria. Kurzi vor s\u0103 \u00eenainteze spre vest spre ora\u0219ul Afrin ca s\u0103 formeze o centur\u0103 kurd\u0103 \u00een nordul Siriei la grani\u021ba cu Turcia. Turcia \u0219i SUA au c\u0103zut de acord s\u0103 \u0219in\u0103 Unit\u0103\u021bile de Protec\u021bie Popilar\u0103 kurd \u00een afara zonei de siguran\u021b\u0103 pe care vor s-o creeze la grani\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n

Zona Iordanian\u0103<\/strong><\/p>\n

La grani\u021ba de sud a Siriei Jordania se preg\u0103te\u0219te s\u0103 dezeneze propria sfer\u0103 de influen\u021b\u0103. De anii de zile serviciile iordaniene de informa\u021bii se coordoneaz\u0103 cu serviciile de informa\u021bii americane. R\u0103zboiul a crescut nesiguran\u021ba la grani\u021ba iprdanian\u0103. Dac\u0103 rebelii preiau Damascu , situat la 60 de km de grani\u021ba cu Iordania Amanul \u00eentr-o situa\u021bie de no-win. Dac\u0103 \u00eemp\u0103r\u021birea Siriei continu\u0103 la fel ca \u0219i folosirea gazelor toxice va \u00eempinge \u00een final pe sirieni \u00een bra\u021bele ISIS ceea ce nicio \u0219ar\u0103 limitrof\u0103 nu dore\u0219te. Protestatarii sirieni din taberele de refugia\u021bi din Iordania \u0219i-au ars pantofii \u00een semn de protest la adresa Iranului a pre\u0219edintelui sirian Assad, a Rusiei \u0219i a Chinei \u00een timpul unui protest desf\u0103\u0219urat \u00een ora\u0219ul Houla l\u00e2ng\u0103 ambasada sirian\u0103 din Aman. iordaina vrea \u0219i ea o zon\u0103 buffer de securitate la grani\u021ba cu Siria \u0219i \u00een interiorul acesteia. Detaliile planului r\u0103m\u00e2n secrete. \u00cen iunie regele Abdullah al II-lea \u021bi-a declarat sprijinul pentru triburile din sudul Siriei \u0219i vestul Irakului care poate fi interpretat\u0103 ca o \u00eenarmare a acestora. Bine\u00een\u021beles c\u0103 a veni anun\u021bul oficial al palatului regal din Aman care neag\u0103 acest lucru.\u00a0 Interesele hasemite \u00een Siria dateaz\u0103 din timpul Marei Revolte Arabe din 1916-1918.\u00cen mod tradi\u021bional sfera de influen\u021b\u0103 iordanian\u0103 se r\u0103sfr\u00e2nge peste platoul vulcani Houran la sud de Damasc. Sprijinul acordat acestor triburi a \u021binut ISIS-ul departe de grani\u021ba iordanian\u0103.<\/p>\n

Aria israelian\u0103<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sfera de influen\u021b\u0103 iordanian\u0103 se suprapune cu cea israelian\u0103 care se teme de vacuml creat la est de Golan. Israelul a asigurat ajutor medical ani de-a r\u00e2ndul sirienilor din zona de sud. Amanul \u0219i Tel Avivul \u00eemp\u0103rt\u0103\u0219esc obiective comune \u00een zonele Houran \u0219i Quneitra. Acolo Israelul are dou\u0103 ariere: (1) unit\u0103\u021bile de lupt\u0103 eficiente sunt jihadiste \u0219i se opun statului Israel \u0219i (2) singurul mod \u00een care regimul Assad, pe care Israelul l-a tolerat, este cu sprijinul Iranului du\u0219manul statului Israel. Israelieni v\u0103d un sprijin prin popula\u021bia druz\u0103 care are loca\u021bia at\u00e2t \u00een Siria c\u00e2t \u0219i \u00een Israel. Lucrurile sunt \u0219i aici destul de complicate.<\/p>\n

Jocul Iranului<\/strong><\/p>\n

Iranul este cel care este implicat masiv \u00een Siria pentru a asigura un coridor de arme Hezbolahului din Liban. Hezbolahul este implicat activ \u00een sprijinirea regimului Assad. Ajutorul Teheranului vine prin membri G\u0103rzii Revolu\u021bionare Iraniene \u0219i For\u021bele Qud care dezvolt\u0103 ac\u021biuni paramilitare \u0219i care sunt dup\u0103 unele estim\u0103ri \u00een num\u0103r mai mare dec\u00e2t militari armatei regulate siriene. 6 miliarde \u00een energie este sprijinul Teheranului pentru regimul Assad.<\/p>\n

\u021a\u0103rile din Golf<\/strong><\/p>\n

Aceste vor s\u0103 impiedice Iranul \u00een a-\u0219i m\u0103ri sfera de influen\u021b\u00ee de\u0219i nu au amprenta piciorului pe teritoriul sirian. \u00cen 2012 c\u00e2nd pre\u0219edintele Obama nu a acceptat s\u0103 \u00eenarmeze Armata Liber\u0103 Sirian\u0103 \u021b\u0103rile din Golf au trecut imediat la \u00eenarmarea suni\u021bilor. Ei sprijin\u0103 arabi modera\u021bi (al-Nusra, Jaysh Fateh sau Armata de Cuceritori foarte puternic\u0103 militar)<\/p>\n

Harta Siriei se schimb\u0103 zi de zi .Vecini aduc politica iar r\u0103zboiul civil devine sectar \u0219i complic\u0103 situa\u021bia. \u00cen\u021belegerea dintre Turcia,Iordania,Israel, Qatar, Arabia Saudit\u0103 \u0219i Iran cu ceea ce vor face cu Siria nu se aplic\u0103. Obama spunea recet odat\u0103 cu \u00eenchierea acordului nuclear cu Iranul\u00a0 c\u0103 dore\u0219te p\u0103strarea intact\u0103 a teritoriului Siriei. Aici Washingtonul trebuie s\u0103 echilibreze bala.a \u00eentre Siria \u0219i vecinii ei pentru a pune \u00een practic\u0103 acorduri agreate de to\u021bi. Ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 plecarea lui Assad \u0219i cum va ar\u0103ta tranzi\u021bia fiecare veci trebuind s\u0103 joace un rol important \u00een \u00eendeplinirea acestor acorduri.\u00a0 Trebuie s\u0103 recuno\u0219tem c\u0103 Siria este un stat dezmebrat care nu va fi repart cur\u00e2nd. Trebuie s\u0103 lucreze cu vecini nu cu Rusia pentru stabilizarea situa\u021biei.<\/p>\n

The D Brief<\/strong><\/p>\n

August 27, 2015<\/em><\/p>\n

The Islamic State group has seized new territory in northern Syria<\/strong>, and it happens to be right inside that rectangular swath of turf the U.S. and Turkey want to establish as an ISIS-free buffer zone. “Islamic State announced it had captured three villages in the area\u2014 including two that the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front recently handed over to another Syrian rebel group\u2014and said its fighters had nearly encircled the rebel-held town of Marea, some 20 km (12 miles), south of the Turkish border,” Reuters reports this morning.<\/p>\n

And in the southern Turkish town of Antakya, a car carrying the commander of the U.S.-backed Syrian rebel group, Jameel Raadoun of Sukour al-Ghab, exploded on Wednesday.<\/strong> Raadoun died in a hospital a short while later, the Wall Street Journal reported from Istanbul. “Sukour al-Ghab, or the Falcons of al-Ghab, is one of several FSA brigades that has received support, including financial backing, training and weaponry, from the U.S. government.” Raadoun had defected from the Syrian army, “where he served as a lieutenant colonel. He survived a similar assassination attempt by unknown assailants in April,” WSJ adds.<\/p>\n

America’s deal with Turkey could prove a Faustian bargain, warns Eric Edelman<\/strong>, former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and defense undersecretary for policy from 2005 to 2009. “By disrupting logistics and communications links between the P.K.K. in Iraq and the<\/strong> P.Y.D. in Syria, Turkey is weakening the most effective ground force fighting the Islamic State in Syria: the Kurds<\/strong>.” More of that in the op-ed pages of the New York Times, here.<\/p>\n

In Iraq, a suicide bomber drove his vehicle into a cluster of Baghdad’s troops and killed two generals north of Ramadi yestarday \u00a0morning.<\/strong> The deceased include “Maj. Gen. Abdul-Rahman Abu-Regheef, deputy chief of operations in Anbar, and Brig. Gen. Sefeen Abdul-Maguid, commander of the 10th Army Division,” along with three other Iraqi troops, AP and Reuters report.<\/p>\n

The Danes just pulled their seven F-16s from Iraq,<\/strong> FlightGlobal reports. The reason: repairs and maintenance, according to the foreign minister.<\/p>\n

At last, some good news of a sort: Junaid Hussain, a “British-born ISIS recruiter and hacker that the U.S. believes was heavily involved in inspiring attacks” is believed to have been killed in a U.S. drone strike on Tuesday<\/strong>, CNN’s Barbara Starr reported Wednesday. Confirming his death is of course difficult.<\/p>\n

Hussain is believed to have been the leader of the “CyberCaliphate<\/strong>, a hacking group which in January attacked a Twitter account belonging to the Pentagon,” Reuters adds.<\/p>\n

On his way to Silicon Valley, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said the recent data breach into a Joint Chiefs of Staff computer network shows the U.S. military is not providing the basic cyber defenses it needs, Defense One’s Kevin Baron reports while traveling with the secretary. Carter said his desire to increase the military’s computer defenses is one reason he is heading to Silicon Valley on Friday to recruit outside help<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Carter also responded to reports that a military inspector general had informed Congress it was looking into allegations that intelligence officers were softening their assessments of the U.S. success against ISIS due to political pressure.<\/strong> “We, starting with the president, but all of us need the most candid information and the most accurate information in order to make the kind of decisions that will lead most rapidly to victory. I expect that of everyone in the department.”<\/p>\n

Carter earlier presided over the change of command of U.S. Transportation Command, or TRANSCOM, one of the military’s nine combatant commands, at Scott Air Force Base in Illinois. Air Force Gen. Darren McDew takes over the post that runs the military’s global logistical supply lines, succeeding Gen. Paul Selva, who recently became vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.<\/p>\n

Carter continued his travels to Nevada’s Nellis Air Force Base late Wednesday, where the U.S. Air Force is hosting the year’s fourth Red Flag fighter jet exercise<\/strong>. “Involving more than 100 aircraft, Red Flag trains fighter pilots, especially, in simulated air-to-air operations that replicate the first phases of new conflicts against other nation states<\/strong>,” writes Baron. Read his report in full, here.<\/p>\n

D\u00a0 From Defense One<\/strong><\/p>\n

Senate cyber security bill will turn on 22 amendments. Democrats and Republicans alike have long lists of ways they want to change the long-awaited legislation, which aims to prod companies to share information about network attacks and breaches.<\/p>\n

Can’t find enough cyber specialists? Make your own. That’s the U.S. Army’s latest tack: it’s inviting all enlisted soldiers, except the very most senior ones, to apply for a yearlong training program. Those who graduate will get new jobs, and a new title: “cyber operations specialist.” NextGov’s Hallie Golden reports.<\/strong><\/p>\n

In Ukraine, seven of Kiev’s troops have been killed and more than a dozen injured in fighting with pro-Russian separatists “outside Mariupol in the south and near Maryinka near the rebel stronghold of Donetsk,” AP reports this morning.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>Across the border in Poland, the U.S. military has been given two sites to<\/strong> store heavy equipment\u2014presumably “battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other heavy weapons in the region, enough for as many as 5,000 troops,<\/strong>” as first reported in June\u2014though Polish Defense Minister Tomasz Siemoniak declined to say what kinds of equipment would be stored at the two sites, which he said include “one in western Poland, and one in north-eastern Poland.”<\/p>\n

“The move will mark the first time Washington has stored heavy military equipment in the newer NATO member states in Eastern Europe and the Baltics,” Reuters notes.<\/p>\n

Tehran recently unveiled a new Fateh-313 ballistic missile that they claim has a range of 500 km, up from the previous 300-km range of the third generation Fateh-110s. <\/strong>“A 67% increase in range from 200 km to 500 km would be a major step forward for Iran’s missile programme,” IHS Janes reports. “It would allow Iran to target more military facilities in the Arab Gulf states with solid-fuel short-range ballistic missiles, allow targets to be attacked from different angles, and\/or increase the amount of Iranian territory from where the missiles could be launched, making their transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) vehicles harder to locate and destroy.”<\/p>\n

“Pakistan may be building 20 nuclear warheads annually and could have the world’s third-largest nuclear stockpile within a decade,” writes WaPo’s Tim Craig on the heels of a new report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Stimson Center that warns “Pakistan <\/strong>is far outpacing India in the development of nuclear warheads,” with Islamabad’s count believed to be about 120<\/strong> while New Delhi has roughly 100<\/strong> of its own. Read the full report here.<\/p>\n

Australian Defense Minister<\/strong> Kevin Andrews teased some findings from a report due in October, this one on Canberra’s 20-year, $214 billion plan<\/strong> to boost its military. “A large chunk of the added spending will go to a stronger open-ocean presence for Australia’s navy, including eight new submarines, nine frigates and up to 20 corvettes at a cost of A$89 billion<\/strong>. Australia is also introducing two amphibious carriers and missile destroyers as well as stealth fighter planes<\/strong>,” WSJ reports from Sydney.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Turcia \u021aara care are prezen\u021ba cea mai important\u0103 pe scena Orientului Mijlociu este Turcia. Ankara dore\u0219te s\u0103-\u0219i impun\u0103 punctul de vedere \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te viitorul Siriei. Constituirea Zonei libere de ocupa\u021bia Statului Islamic este obiectivul num\u0103rul unu al politici externe turce la grani\u021ba cu Siria. F\u00e2\u0219ia de teritoriul situat\u0103 de-a lungul grani\u021bei \u00een lungime de 100 de km \u0219i ad\u00e2nc\u0103 de 64 de km se \u00eentinde de la ora\u0219ul Azaz al ora\u0219ul Jarabulus pe r\u00e2ul Eufrat este destinat\u0103 s\u0103 taie leg\u0103turile Satului Islamic cu exteriorul, s\u0103 \u00eempart\u0103 teritoriul kurd din nordul Siriei \u00een dou\u0103 zone \u00eempiedic\u00e2nd consolidarea proviciei Rojava. Rojava sau Kurdistanul de Vest este o regiune autonom\u0103 de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3968,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[74,65,83,84,86,102,72,62],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3970","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-alexandru-grumaz-en","category-blog-en","category-energyenvironment","category-global-governance","category-international-peace-security","category-issues","category-middle-east","category-regions"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3970"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3970"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3970\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3971,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3970\/revisions\/3971"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3968"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3970"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3970"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3970"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}