{"id":3991,"date":"2015-10-25T11:51:07","date_gmt":"2015-10-25T09:51:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/?p=3991"},"modified":"2017-11-14T21:27:42","modified_gmt":"2017-11-14T19:27:42","slug":"barack-obama-a-fantastical-strategist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/barack-obama-a-fantastical-strategist\/","title":{"rendered":"Barack Obama, a fantastical strategist?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>To take\u00a0 Martin Luther King wildly out of context:\u00a0 I too have a fantasy. Suppose it is President Barack Obama and not Russian President Vladimir Putin who is the cleverer strategist.\u00a0 Suppose Mr. Obama cunningly set a trap in Syria for President Putin that either will lead to a negotiated political settlement or embroil Moscow in a Syrian quagmire?\u00a0 Or is this a dream run amuck in that there is no way that a community organizer turned university law professor could have outwitted and outmaneuvered a former KGB spymaster?<\/p>\n

Last week was not a good one for either the United States or for President Obama.\u00a0 The annual UN General Assembly meeting of heads of government became the venue for President Putin making a mockery of Mr. Obama\u2019s Syrian Strategy. Putin then stunned the anti-Islamic State Coalition with the announcement that Russian aircraft were striking Syrian \u201cterrorists\u201d aiming to topple the Damascus government headed by Bashar al Assad.\u00a0 Adding insult to injury, Russia created an intelligence center in Baghdad linking America\u2019s erstwhile ally Iraq with Russia, Iran and Syria.<\/p>\n

Howls of criticism over these debacles from left and right still reverberate throughout the White House.\u00a0 However, suppose these critics were wrong. Suspend belief for a moment.\u00a0 Obama\u2019s \u201cstrategy\u201d to destroy IS was failing.\u00a0 His contradictory top priorities of demanding that Assad must go and the Islamic State in Syria must be destroyed were incompatible and unworkable. How could Obama resolve this predicament?<\/p>\n

Because the administration was only prepared to use minimal American force with great reluctance and absent stronger U.S. leadership and commitment Arab allies would not do more, someone else had to do the heavy lifting.\u00a0 Enter Russia and who better than Mr. Putin? Already bogged down in Ukraine and seeking a way out—-and last Friday\u2019s meeting in Paris with French President Francois Hollande, German Chancellor Angel Merkel, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Mr. Putin may be the first step—Syria offered the Kremlin an exit strategy.<\/p>\n

Even by sending a modest military force, Putin was demonstrating that unlike the U.S. who readily abandons its friends and allies such as Presidents Mubarak and Qaddafi and intervenes elsewhere precipitating eventual chaos—Iraq and Afghanistan—Russia stands by its partners.\u00a0 And Mr. Obama knew that Russia\u2019s actions would raise Mr. Putin\u2019s image and popularity at home at least for the short term.<\/p>\n

Indeed, reacting to a shrinking economy, in a major speech last December, Putin guaranteed his countrymen that in two years time, all would be well on the economic front.\u00a0 With the current state of oil prices, Putin is also running low on foreign reserves.\u00a0 So it is extremely unlikely he can deliver on that promise. Hence, while Putin\u2019s political future is safe for the moment, for the long-term things could go badly. Thus, in this fantasy about Obama\u2019s mind, Syria offers Putin further opportunities.<\/p>\n

Russian air strikes will sustain the Assad regime for the short term.\u00a0 But if Russia does not wish to be drawn into an Afghan-like quagmire that helped implode the Soviet Union and cause what Putin called the greatest geostrategic catastrophe of the last century, these missions in Syria will not continue indefinitely.\u00a0 If they do, then Syria could become a Russian nightmare. A stronger Assad might be more prone to accepting a diplomatic settlement given he would have more influence in negotiating a more favorable outcome.\u00a0 If the war drags on, Russia is trapped.\u00a0 While the Syrian people will suffer, that was inevitable without Russian intervention.\u00a0 Either way, Obama comes out ahead.<\/p>\n

If Putin takes the high road, sanctions will be lifted and possibly the Russian economy will quickly change direction.\u00a0 If it does not, Putin\u2019s longevity is in question.\u00a0 While Obama may not be in office long enough to claim either result, that could be his legacy—if one were prepared to accept the president\u2019s strategic acumen.<\/p>\n

Time to wake up.\u00a0 Reality trumps fantasy. Readers will have concluded that this rendition is far too generous to Mr. Obama.\u00a0 If Obama were a true strategist, he would confront the facts and emulate what George W. Bush was forced to do in 2006 regarding the disintegrating conditions in Iraq.\u00a0 Bush made massive changes to his strategy. So too must Obama. It is unlikely he will.<\/p>\n

The administration\u2019s strategy for destroying the Islamic State—and some argue there is no strategy– is not working and actually is failing badly.\u00a0 Russian and Iranian interventions into Syria may or may not pour gasoline on this fire. Yet more of the same on Obama\u2019s part will be disastrous.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

To take\u00a0 Martin Luther King wildly out of context:\u00a0 I too have a fantasy. Suppose it is President Barack Obama and not Russian President Vladimir Putin who is the cleverer strategist.\u00a0 Suppose Mr. Obama cunningly set a trap in Syria for President Putin that either will lead to a negotiated political settlement or embroil Moscow in a Syrian quagmire?\u00a0 Or is this a dream run amuck in that there is no way that a community organizer turned university law professor could have outwitted and outmaneuvered a former KGB spymaster? Last week was not a good one for either the United States or for President Obama.\u00a0 The annual UN General Assembly […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":3989,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65,76,86,102],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3991","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog-en","category-harlan-ullman-en","category-international-peace-security","category-issues"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3991"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3991"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3991\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3992,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3991\/revisions\/3992"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3989"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3991"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3991"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3991"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}