Here is a prediction: Vladimir Putin is on a course to fail as president of the Russian Federation.\u00a0 Do not expect failure this year or even next.\u00a0 However, it is as inevitable as was the overthrow of party leader Nikita Khrushchev in 1964 and the implosion of the Soviet Union less than three decades later.<\/p>\n
The reason is the fatal flaw in autocratic rule: the inability to keep powerful centrifugal political forces in check forever. Despite Putin\u2019s popularity—which is transient—and his huge electoral majority in the Duma, irreversible political, economic, social and cultural forces are at work.\u00a0 One reason that these forces have not yet reached a critical mass has been Putin\u2019s uncanny ability to outsmart the West in foreign policy that has played well with Russians so far. But Putin is living on borrowed time much as his predecessors in the old Soviet Union were.<\/p>\n
Some in America will assert it was Ronald Reagan\u2019s strategy to spend the Soviet Union into oblivion that triggered its demise.\u00a0 That is simply untrue.\u00a0 The geriatric leadership in the Kremlin and a series of \u201cliving dead\u201d oligarchs promoted the rise of Mikhail Gorbachev. After having held various senior ministerial appointments, Gorbachev understood that only massive reform could correct the corrupt and brittle Soviet political-economic system. That reform ended the USSR.<\/p>\n
Putin is approaching two decades in power.\u00a0 While the annexation of Crimea and the relatively low cost, high leverage military support of Bashar al Assad have certainly restored national prestige among Russians, the what next question has not been answered.\u00a0 As the Syrian civil war becomes bloodier and the charge of war crimes over the bombing and killing of unarmed UN aid workers attempting to bring humanitarian support to the beleaguered city of Aleppo during a truce grows stronger, President Barack Obama\u2019s prediction of a Russian quagmire comes closer to realization.<\/p>\n
Frozen conflicts are not in Russia\u2019s long-term interest.\u00a0 Of course, while the short-term aim of preventing Georgia and Ukraine from joining NATO because of contested borders is working, the long-term economic damage done to Russia will prove politically destructive. Putin certainly is riding a political tiger.\u00a0 However, he has no clear exit strategy for safely dismounting this dangerous beast.\u00a0 That is a fundamental predicament.<\/p>\n
How can the West and the United States exploit this political advantage? Putin\u2019s only salvation may rest in the West\u2019s impotence in responding effectively to what needs to be done at a time when Western leaders universally suffer from unprecedented levels of high unfavorability ratings by their citizens.\u00a0 Only President Obama is at or above the 50% level.<\/p>\n
What should the U.S. do?\u00a0 First, common sense and not confrontation is the best means to exploit Putin\u2019s political weaknesses.\u00a0 By threatening Russia, his public will rally around Putin.\u00a0 This does not mean granting concessions.\u00a0 It means being smart not petulant. It also means shifting NATO\u2019s strategy to local defense based on a \u201cporcupine\u201d posture with emphasis on Stinger-like anti-air and Javelin anti-vehicle missiles all reinforced by alliance capabilities to blunt Russian cyber, propaganda, intimidation and other non-conventional forms of war.<\/p>\n
Second, the U.S. needs to dial back on belligerent rhetoric.\u00a0 By all means plan for \u201cfull spectrum war.\u201d\u00a0 But do not use a PR bullhorn to announce what is being done. Teddy Roosevelt applies—speak softly but carry a big stick.<\/p>\n
Third, a Track III is needed.\u00a0 Track II entailed discussions between former senior officials on both sides as appetizers to facilitate more formal talks between government.\u00a0 In a Track III, both sides would provide the rationale and arguments underpinning the specific policies of their two governments that would be available for public view and reaction. The providers would be \u201cexperts\u201d not directly connected to their governments but with substantial experience and perceived as \u201chonest brokers.\u201d<\/p>\n
To repeat, brains not brawn beats Putin!<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Here is a prediction: Vladimir Putin is on a course to fail as president of the Russian Federation.\u00a0 Do not expect failure this year or even next.\u00a0 However, it is as inevitable as was the overthrow of party leader Nikita Khrushchev in 1964 and the implosion of the Soviet Union less than three decades later. The reason is the fatal flaw in autocratic rule: the inability to keep powerful centrifugal political forces in check forever. Despite Putin\u2019s popularity—which is transient—and his huge electoral majority in the Duma, irreversible political, economic, social and cultural forces are at work.\u00a0 One reason that these forces have not yet reached a critical mass has […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":4345,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65,76],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4347","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog-en","category-harlan-ullman-en"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4347"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4347"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4347\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4351,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4347\/revisions\/4351"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4345"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4347"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4347"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cass-ro.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4347"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}