With a policy of zero problems with neighbors, Ankara was pushed by events in the region plunged into struggles for hegemony. The emergence of Russia, lack of interest, for now the U.S., under the campaign, to arbitrate disputes in the Middle East, competition with Tehran have made Ankara central moderator between Russia, the U.S. and Iran to Syria. Ankara dialogue with Tehran latter facilitates relationship with Washington. Last meeting of leaders in Ankara and Tehran have brought to the table a proposal to the Iranian head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano to discuss possible military dimension of the Iranian government Iranian nuclear program. Putin’s visit to Ankara sends a message to the new U.S. president to resume dialogue and negotiations Russia-NATO ballistic missile in late. Syria seeks a solution to the civil war in the country.
Conflict with Turkey would move attention from the crimes committed against their citizens and involve Ankara in an internal affair of Damascus with incalculable consequences for the region. Events after the border incident showed us that Ankara could face a severe deterioration of relations with Russian Federation to which interest is particularly sensitive, while in recent years has managed to strengthen bilateral relations, especially on a topic common interest-transport energy – and this despite the natural obstacles between the Russian Federation and NATO state with different strategic perspectives on the Middle East and the Caucasus region. Conflict of Turkish-Syrian border was triggered by the explosion of several Syrian missiles that hit Turkish territory, five people were killed. Turkish military retaliated with attacks on Syrian territory.
However, Turkey has demanded an emergency meeting of NATO in Brussels, where ambassadors of the 28 NATO member countries discussed the situation of the Turkish-Syrian border. In the press statement, NATO ambassadors have shown that along with Turkey and will help to defend, but will not intervene in Syria. “We need to put in place the strategy, so as to protect and defend Turkey if needed this,” said NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. Turn Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan said his country has no intention to start a war with Syria after the parliament in Ankara authorized military action on the territory of Syria. It is totally unlikely that Syrian military planners not to have realized that the northern neighbor, Turkey, has a far superior military force capable of carrying devastating war to Damascus. Naturally the question arises, if so, how has allowed risk to fire out of the blue. Answers are many. Looks imply that, in the chaos that now reigns in Syria, military command lacking strategic situation throughout. Violence in Syria continues in the same premises dramatic, a cunfruntare between rebel forces and the Syrian army which 85% of civilian deaths represent.
Rebels by taking control of urban centers such as al-Numan Maar city, located on the highway that connects the capital Damascus commercial center of the country, Aleppo, creates the premises of bloody clashes between rebel forces and forces loyal to Assad regime. Therefore, the challenge could be initiated on their own some commanders, complaining that Turkey hosts its space some 200,000 refugees, mostly from the ranks of the rebel forces and supply them with ammunition and weapons is channel passing through Turkey. Authorities in Damascus have been slightly over pride, and finally putting some ashes on the head when they said that the attacks were accidental. In other news, that Syria might be real interested in a border conflict. Events show that President Bashar al-Assad’s forces losing ground rapidly and a defeat in a war with Turkey (a NATO member) would provide a pretext to make victimized before their own people and perhaps even foreign countries. Third, the events should be put in a broader context. Not once, in Tehran leader boasted that it would interfere with anyone from the outside, if he would attack friends. Thus, in a desperate moment, Bashar al-Assad aimed to test how far Iran goes friendship (?), Although Iran is now concerned about their future, tightening the noose around the embargo administration in Tehran.
A story that surprises us is that Iran, which has retreated to the 275 members of the elite Quds troops in Syria (members of the brigade called Unit 400). Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is forced to face the challenges triggered by the collapse of the currency and the protests in the country. But it is hard to believe that the motivation of its crisis lead Tehran to call the 275 Iranian soldiers stationed in Syria. We have here to do with a weakness of the Assad regime and Tehran takes safety precautions that any collapse does not find his elite troops in the role of victims of an area that has imploded. End of Assad regime is coming. Scenario in Libya but can not be applied in a state where Syrian army is still strong, well organized and respond in a leader or important measure orders from Damascus. And then let’s not forget that Damascus is the largest importer of Russian military equipment in the Middle East and recently tried to purchase Russian-made helicopters MI-24 aircraft Yak-130 and MiG-29, which has sparked international protests .
Beyond the trucks cross the shells that produced victims of a side of the border, a new episode was recorded on relatively Turkey – Syria, an episode that led to the seizure of a military cargo from a Syrian civilian plane that perform a race between Moscow and Damascus. Syrian passenger aircraft such as A-320, flying from Moscow to Damascus, with 35 people on board, including 17 Russian citizens was intercepted by several F-16 fighter jets of the Turkish army and forced to land in Ankara, where Turkish authorities seized a part of the catch on board. Things are still unclear. The operation was initiated on the basis of information of Turkish intelligence, who had clues about a “suspicious cargo” on board. Turkish media reported that authorities seized a plane load before allowing him to take off (they were requisitioned radio equipment, antennas and assemblies “which is believed to represent parts of missiles”). It seems unlikely that Turkish Prime Minister launched so serious accusations against the Russian Federation knowing that the sender knows the exact nature of the cargo. Therefore Syrian authorities have ordered that all aircraft entering Turkish airspace on Syria to be intercepted by the air forces as a sign of retaliation against Ankara that intercepted a plane bound for Syria Damascus.
Aviation companies in Turkey, for fear of reprisals, changed flight routes to Saudi Arabia and Europe. And why not start a war between Turkey and Syria. Three reasons: (1) interest Turks want the Turkish-Syrian retalierea against challenges but do not want a war, punctual Turkish ripostele aiming to put thoughtful neighbor, and to respond protests Turkish population, (2) Syria-is to provoke interest not to engage in a war against Turkey but were not against the most successful alliance after World War II, NATO, Syrian attacks remain so simple sounding tables or errors of an army shattered by war and suggests that the turmoil inside the country, busy with his struggles, only a foreign war would be lacking, the disaster is complete, (3) factor does not want a Kurdish-Turkish Kurds in Syria which encourage actin would result in violence, including due PKK on its territory. Syria is currently a big problem and that is that Salafist groups operating on its territory supplied by Al Qaeda, Hezbollah, PKK, or Jabhat of Nusrat, a fraction that has claimed a series of suicide attacks, groups that can downgrade a conflict of Damascus with any of the neighbors. Chaos among opposition has facilitated the development of this fauna extremist embroidered blankets most deprived despair. As a final conclusion: the situation in Syria will remain unchanged in the short term, but antagonizing Turkey could significantly accelerate the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad employers.
For Turkey conflict with Syria is a threat and an opportunity. Ankara is a smooth transition from secularism to Islam clash with Muslim Brotherhood current that haunt the Middle East is inevitable. The Turks, in those circumstances, to avoid a political vacuum that would influnţa Syria Kurdish separatist movement, reduce Iranian influence in the region while expanding his own, refusing to raise Ottomanism and defend against new Russian missile systems S-400 directed towards the national territory.
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