Geopolitics 101: History Matters

As President Vladimir Putin moves to consolidate Russian autonomy over Crimea with a referendum, the West continues to struggle to find acceptable policies to reverse or punish this encroachment.  Short of a military response that would be profoundly reckless and exceedingly dangerous, in these policy deliberations by the West led by Washington, history seems to be missing in action. Sometimes history matters.   In the late 1960’s, NATO faced several crises with the Soviet Union.  The Soviet Union had embarked on a major rearmament program for both its nuclear and conventional forces that challenged the strategy of nuclear retaliation anchoring NATO’s defense.  In 1968, after the Prague Spring broke out, [...]

Romania victima colaterala a confruntarilor din Ucraina?

Evolutiile din Ucraina sunt inca in stadiul de escaladare, iar pana la panta descendenta a conflictului se mai pot intampla inca multe. In fiecare ora se intampla cate ceva nou care aduce o noua perspectiva asupra evenimentelor, iar analizele se updateaza permanent. Nu intentionez sa scriu inca un articol de analiza, nu pentru ca nu ar fi util, ci pentru ca lucrurile se schimba atat de repede incat nici nu as termina analiza ca as fi nevoit sa o rescriu. Va propun in schimb un altfel de articol, prin intermediul caruia as vrea sa deschidem o dezbatere asupra modului in care Romania este afectata, sau va fi afectata de ceea [...]

Geopolitics 101—Don’t lose wars!

Prior to entering national office, politicians of all stripes and especially American presidents-elect and members of Congress should take a short course in Geopolitics 101.  That course would have but two warnings:  don’t start wars you can’t win and above all don’t lose wars.  One would think that is common sense.  But it is not. America’s wartime scorecard is not impressive with a singe exception.  Along with allies, we won the big one---World War II.  Korea was at best a draw.  Vietnam, and let’s not forget that was a war of our choice, went to the other side.  Grenada did not count.  Afghanistan and Iraq have turned out badly so [...]

Geopolitics 101—Don’t re-invent the Russian bear and Chinese dragon

Last week’s geopolitical guidance to politicians was don’t lose wars.  This week’s advice is don’t re-invent Russian bears and Chinese dragons.  Portraying Russia and China as potential or peer adversaries and threats goes back to the Soviet Union’s last leader Mikhail Gorbachev.  “What are you going to do now that you no longer have an enemy?” he asked. In addition to hosting the most expensive Olympic Games in history, Vladimir Putin’s autocratic Russia has announced major increases in defense spending.  The Old Soviet Fifth Eskadra that deployed to the Mediterranean during the Cold War was replaced with a new Russian Mediterranean force based in Tartus, Syria.  Half a dozen or [...]

De la Dialogurile lui Platon la cele de la Munchen

Țuțea spune într-unul din interviurile acordate după 1989 că: Istoria este făcută de Aleși!La fel s-a întâmplat și anul acesta în Germania la Conferința de Securitate de la Munchen. A fost un eveniment remarcabil nu numai prin faptul că s-au sărbătorit 50 de ani de la prima reprezentație dar mai ales prin participanții care au urcat pe podiumul ei- Henry Kissinger și Helmut Schmidt- împreună cu alți patriarhi ai construcției globale internaționale precum - Egon Bahr sau  Valéry Giscard d'Estaing - cei patru acumulând 370 de ani în politica mondială. Conferința a fost marcată de absența cancelarului Angela Merkel dar reprezentarea germană cât și noile linii de angajament consolidat în [...]

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