The New MAD: An era of assured disruption

For much of the cold war, the major strategic and security paradigm between east and west was largely (and misleadingly) defined as an era of mutual assured destruction or MAD. MAD meant both sides could assure the near total destruction and defeat of the other in a nuclear or thermonuclear war.  Today, despite the presence weapons of mass destruction, the era of MAD is over.  But a new strategic mindset is now needed. The demise of the Soviet Union is one reason.  As important is the erosion of the Westphalian system of state-centric politics.  Through a combination of the diffusion of all forms of power and globalization, individuals and small [...]

August: the most dangerous month?

Arguably, August is in the finals as potentially the most dangerous month of the year.  On August 4th a century ago, Britain went to war to honor an 1839 treaty immediately after the Kaiser’s army invaded that Belgium.  Fifty years ago, on the same date in 1964 (following an attack by North Vietnamese torpedo boats on a U.S. Navy destroyer two days before), a second incident occurred in the Tonkin Gulf.  Two Navy destroyers radioed that both were under torpedo attack.  No such attack took place.  But the incident was enough for the U.S. Congress to pass the Tonkin Gulf Resolution that began a decade of war in Vietnam, the [...]

Peace, prosperity and stability through partnerships: a grand design for a 21st century strategic mindset

Most American presidents, from George Washington to George W. Bush, have been accused of and attacked for having the wrong strategy.  Of post-World War II presidents, Barack Obama has perhaps been most assailed for having no strategy.  His seeming reluctance to take a stand and stand up for it under pressure has likewise drawn harsh criticism. Leading from behind in Libya; demanding that Syrian President Bashar al Assad leave office; and drawing “red lines” to deter Assad’s use of chemical weapons are evidence used in the court of public opinion to prove presidential lack of spine.  But the world is a complicated and violent place.  Washington, Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt [...]

The great war redux

July 28th marks the centenary of the start of World War I---also known as the “Great War” and tragically and wrongly described by President Woodrow Wilson as the “war to end all wars.”  That war was neither great nor the end of war.  About eight million soldiers on all sides were killed and at least an equal number of civilians perished---many through disease and starvation. Last week, London’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI---founded in 1831 by the Duke of Wellington as a permanent institution to study and analyze war) hosted a one-day conference on World War I.  The lens was the Western front focusing on British, French and German strategies [...]

President Obama’s greatest (and possibly fatal) flaws

President Barack Obama and his administration are taking heavy fire over accusations of failing to lead in foreign policy.  Whether in Washington or global capitals, the White House is being vigorously condemned and chastised for indecision and for abdicating America’s role as the so-called indispensible power.   “Leading from behind” in Libya, failing to act after setting a “red line” in Syria over the use of chemical weapons, allowing Vladimir Putin free reign in annexing Crimea and dealing with civil war in Iraq are among the arguments citing Obama’s indecisiveness and ineffectiveness.  The result has been a perceived diminution of American power and influence and of Washington’s authority to command [...]

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